Brazil to Add 19.2 GW of Solar Capacity in 2025, Signaling Slower Growth

Brazil is set to install 19.2 GW of new solar capacity in 2025, marking only a slight increase from the 18.9 GW added in 2024, according to SolarPower Europe’s “Global Solar Power Market Outlook 2025–2029.” While the country continues to strengthen its leadership in Latin America's solar market—particularly in distributed generation—the pace of growth is expected to plateau in the near term.

This slowdown is attributed to recent changes in self-consumption regulations and delays in connecting distributed generation systems to the grid. Additionally, transmission infrastructure constraints continue to pose significant challenges for utility-scale solar projects. However, new energy storage regulations set to take effect in 2025 could provide a boost to the sector.

As of December 2024, Brazil ranked sixth globally in cumulative solar capacity, reaching 66.7 GW. It was the fourth-largest market in terms of new solar installations last year, following China (329 GW), the United States (50 GW), and India (30.7 GW).

Despite the expected stagnation in 2025, long-term projections remain optimistic. Based on data from Absolar and the Brazilian Energy Research Corporation (EPE), Brazil’s total installed solar PV capacity could reach between 90 GW (conservative scenario) and 107.6 GW (optimistic scenario) by 2029. For distributed generation alone, installed capacity is forecasted to hit between 54.2 GW and 63.9 GW, while centralized generation is expected to grow by an average of 3.7 GW to 5.3 GW annually.

In 2023, Brazil saw a 15% increase in solar installations, making it the third-largest market globally. However, a 21% growth in 2024 wasn’t sufficient to maintain its position, pushing it to fourth place. The sector’s recent success has been driven by high electricity prices, abundant solar resources, government auctions, and supportive net metering policies. Even in the face of economic headwinds, rising import tariffs on PV modules, and high curtailment rates, Brazil’s solar market has consistently exceeded government expectations.